When Saturday comes, you’ll inevitably see plenty of football fans sharing their winning – and losing – betting slips on social media. Not everyone bets on the action, of course, but, for some fans, the Saturday ritual of trying to beat the bookies has become as much a part of the matchday experience as anything else.

There has been an evolution in betting, too, of course. The rise of bet builders has become a talking point, with punters adding legs like “James Tavernier to have a shot on target” and “over X number of corners” to their match bets. It has allowed punters to become more analytical, basing their bets on statistics rather than gut feeling. Of course, in this topsy-turvy Scottish Premiership season, it feels like the stats have gone out the window, but you get the point.

New sports prediction markets have gone live

Yet, there has also been an evolution away from the traditional bookies with the arrival of prediction markets. You have probably seen these platforms come to prominence because they let you bet on current affairs, such as the outcome of elections, but they are moving into sports, too. Indeed, DraftKings’ Predictions Market online has just launched, and it covers a massive range of sports.

Could this one day usurp the traditional bookies model? If you aren’t aware, prediction markets trade on the premise of “yes” or “no”. So, a simple market might be “Will Rangers win the league this season?” You can obviously get odds for that from your bookmaker, but the predictions market platform does not provide traditional odds; it provides percentages weighted on who bets on “yes” and who bets on “no”. It’s as simple as that.

So, do you get better odds from the predictions market? It depends. The crucial element is that you are betting with or against other punters, not the bookies. And the key aspect is that you are trying to determine whether there is value in the yes/no proposition. For example, right now, bookies have Rangers priced at 6/4 to win the league ahead of Hearts and Celtic. With prediction markets, you are tasked with finding better odds than that because more people are backing Celtic and/or Hearts.

Weigh up all the factors before deciding

There are other factors to consider. For a start, the market needs to be liquid enough for those trying to place large bets. Secondly, you might have to factor in (relatively small) commissions taken from the platform in your profit calculation. Finally, money is often smart, and these platforms are used by pro traders who will always want an edge.

Yet, the logic is completely sound. With a bookie, you are given odds based on a variety of factors. Money counts for moving the odds, sure, but it is not the only factor. With prediction markets, it is about money only. They are weighted based on what other punters think, not what the bookie decides is the fair price. Sometimes it will offer better odds than the bookies, and sometimes it won’t. With so many sports prediction markets now going live, it might be worth taking the time to check before you place your bets.